Monday, November 22, 2004

What Are The Odds?

See if this sounds familiar.

A close presidential election. An authoritarian president determined to win reelection. Exit polls that clearly show the challenger running away with it. But when the dust clears, the election "results" show the incumbent with a clear majority. The United States? Nope. The Ukraine. In an election that took place today.

Only, the challenger in that election didn't just roll over at the major discrepancy between the early exit polls and the results. Instead, he told his people to take to the streets and that's what they did. Now the election monitors, including Senator Lugar, are stating that there was definite voter fraud perpetrated by the incumbent.

Now, I'm sure that there is a statistical possibility that two national elections could be held within weeks of each other, in which both had early exit polls showing the challenger with a clear victory only to have the incumbent end up with a majority of the votes. But what are the odds that one of them was a legitimate failure of early exit polling while the other was a blatant case of voter fraud?

Pretty fucking slim.

Which are exactly the odds that anyone in the MSM will ask a similar question.

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